Contents

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شائع کیا گیا پر اپریل 29, 2022

Sr. No.
Chapter I: Scars of the Pandemic
1	Introduction
2	Pre-COVID Slowdown
3	Post-COVID Economic Scenario
4	Risks to Recovery
Chapter II: Rebalancing Monetary and Fiscal Policies Post-Pandemic
1	Introduction
2	Impact of Policy Stimulus on Growth
3	Lessons from India’s Own Experience
4	Post-COVID Debt Overhang: Debt Consolidation for Stronger Economic Growth
5	Conclusion
Chapter III: Structural Issues in Rejuvenating Growth
1	Introduction
2	Structural Transformation in India
3	Productivity Trends
4	Structural Impediments in Key Sectors
5	Structural Growth Enablers
6	Factor Market Impediments
7	Conclusion
Chapter IV: Harnessing Open Economy Vistas for Faster Growth
1	Introduction
2	Trade Openness, Export Competitiveness and Growth
3	Role of Imports
4	Capital Flows, Exchange Rate and Growth
5	Conclusion
Chapter V: The Role of Finance in Revitalising Growth
1	Introduction
2	COVID Impact on the Indian Financial System
3	Pre-COVID Financial Intermediation Challenges
4	Reinvigorating Credit Growth—Policy Options
5	Leveraging Digital Finance and Start-ups for Reinvigorating Growth
6	Green Finance for Sustainable growth
7	Conclusion and Way Forward
Chapter VI: A Policy Agenda for Post-COVID-19 India

LIST OF BOXES
Sr. No.
I.1	Did COVID-19 Expose Pre-existing Weakness in Corporate Balance Sheet?
I.2	COVID-19 Shock - Relative Impact on Demand and Supply
II.1	Debt Impact on Risk Premium
II.2	Limits to Consolidation of Public Debt in India Post-Pandemic
III.1	Structural Determinants of TFP Growth in India
III.2	Resource Reallocation for Higher Productivity Growth
III.3	Determinants of TFP Growth in Indian Agriculture
III.4	Ease of Doing Business in India and Future Reforms
IV.1	Dynamic Foreign Trade Multiplier of India
IV.2	Country and Product Identification Strategy for Enhancing India’s Export Potential
IV.3	India’s Free Trade Agreements – For Trade Creation or Diversion?
IV.4	Impact of Foreign Capital on Growth
IV.5	Composition of Capital Inflows and Growth
IV.6	Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Exporting Firms
V.1	Financial Conditions Index (FCI) and Growth
V.2	Optimal Credit Growth in India

LIST OF TABLES
Sr. No.
I.1	Episodes of Boom and Bust
I.2	Sector-wise Recovery Pattern
II.1	Overall Fiscal Multipliers
II.2	Asymmetric Fiscal Multipliers
II.3	Relationship Between Debt and Economic Growth
III.1	International Trade in Ores & Minerals from 2015-16 to 2019-20
III.2	A Broad-based Slowdown in Services
III.3	Components of Construction - Share in Output (in per cent)
III.4	Trend of Key Infrastructure Capacity (2011=100)
III.5	Share of Infrastructure Sector in Real GVA and GFCF
III.6	Investment in Electricity Infrastructure by the Public Sector
III.7	State-wise Estimates of Potential for Solar and Wind Energy
III.8	Price of Electricity for Businesses (US cents per kWh)
III.9	Vision 2025 for the Healthcare Sector
III.10	Sector-wise Labour Productivity
IV.1	Country-wise Profile of India’s Export Partners
IV.2	Change in Revealed Comparative Advantage (2010-20 over 2001-09)
IV.3	Trade Complementarity Index
IV.4	Frontier Technologies, Description and Early Adopters
IV.5	Trade and Research and Development Statistics for India
IV.6	Commodities with High Import Dependence on China and Alternative Suppliers
IV.7	Exchange Rate, Competitiveness and Exports Volume – FMOLS Estimates
V.1	Impact of COVID-19 on Key Banking Indicators

LIST OF CHARTS
Sr. No.
I.1	Movement in Consumption and Investment
I.2	Employment and Wages
I.3	Gross Capital Formation by Institutional Sectors
I.4	Top 15 Countries Affected by COVID-19
I.5	Vaccination Programme in India
I.6	Cross-country GDP Growth in 2020-21
I.7	Stringency Measure and GDP Growth in 2020-21
I.8	Factors Contributing to the Deepest Slowdown
I.9	Economic Activity Index
I.10	Recovery in Demand and Output
I.11	Growth in Private Consumption
I.12	Current Situation Index (CSI) and Future Expectations Index (FEI)
I.13	Labour Market Condition during the Pandemic
I.14	Activity Status in Urban Areas during the Pandemic
I.15	Investment Demand
I.16	Capacity Utilisation in Manufacturing
I.17	Business Assessment Index and Business Expectations Index
I.18	Corporate Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic
I.19	Sector-wise Impact of the Pandemic
I.20	Sector-wise Growth in Manufacturing GVA
I.21	Organised and Unorganised Services Sectors
I.22	Structural Breaks in GDP
I.23	Medium-term Real GDP Path
II.1	Impulse Responses to one S.D. Policy Shock
II.2	Asymmetric Responses of GDP Growth to Policy Shock
II.3	Surplus Liquidity Impact on Inflation – Estimated Threshold Effects
II.4	Surplus Liquidity Impact on Inflation – Estimated Time-Varying Effects
II.5	Asymmetric Response of Inflation to One Percentage Point Change in WACR
II.6	Scope for Monetary Accommodation of Fiscal Stance
II.7	Financing of Fiscal Deficit through Net RBI Credit to the Government
II.8	Weighted Average Cost of Borrowing (Central Government)
II.9	Response of Term Premia to One Percentage Point Increase in Net LAF to NDTL Ratio
II.10	Relationship between Inflation and Output Gap in India (1996-97:Q1 to 2019-20:Q4)
II.11	General Government Outstanding Liabilities
II.12	Interest Payments on Government Debt
II.13	India's Decadal Debt Decomposition
III.1	Sectoral Shares in Real GVA
III.2	Dependence on Agriculture for Employment
III.3	Capital Concentration in Industry
III.4	Capital Stock Per Worker
III.5	Components of Manufacturing GVA
III.6	Sectoral Decompostion of Total Exports
III.7	An Accelerated Growth in Urban Population
III.8	Total Factor Productivity Growth - Global Trends
III.9	Labour Productivity Growth-Global Trends
III.10	Decomposition of GDP Growth in India
III.11	Sectoral Drivers of TFP Growth (YoY) in India
III.12	Indicators for Innovation and Productivity-Global Comparison
III.13	Growth in Agricultural Production and GVA
III.14	India’s Share in World Agriculture and Merchandise Trade
III.15	GCF and R&D in Agriculture
III.16	Cross-Country Comparison of Average TFP Growth and Crop Yields
III.17	Agricultural Credit in India - Size and Composition
III.18	Ratio of Agriculture Credit to State GVA
III.19	Cropping Intensity and Irrigation Coverage Appears to have Plateaued
III.20	Skewed Development in the Sources of Irrigation
III.21	Crop-wise Share in Gross Irrigated Area
III.22	Trend of Input Subsidies and Public Gross Capital Formation in Agriculture
III.23	Order of Self Sufficiency
III.24	GDP Size vs. Mining Share
III.25	Index of Coal, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production
III.26	Growth Rate of GDP and Manufacturing
III.27	Impact of Manufacturing over Services
III.28	Electricity Consumption: Industry vs. Others
III.29	Services Growth
III.30	Housing Sales, Launches and Pricing
III.31	Competitiveness Index and Infrastructure Index
III.32	Revenue Gap, Transmission Losses, and Power Subsidies
III.33	Literacy Trends
III.34	Gross Enrollment Ratio
III.35	Health Infrastructure - India vs. Peers
III.36	Delayed Projects
III.37	Cost Overrun of Delayed Projects
III.38	Labour Force Participation Rate 2019-20
III.39	High Self-Employment
III.40	Job Quality - Status of Written Job Contract
III.41	Low Level of Job Training
III.42	Education Profile of India
IV.1	Net Exports of Goods and Services
IV.2	Profile of India's Major Trading Partners
IV.3	Growth and Trade Performance – India versus World
IV.4	Trade Performance of Major Economies – Income and Substitution Effect
IV.5	Sectoral Shifts in Revealed Comparative Advantage
IV.6	Revealed Comparative Advantage Index – Merchandise
IV.7	Revealed Comparative Advantage Index – Services
IV.8	India’s Services Exports – Diversification
IV.9	Services Trade Openness and Export Performance
IV.10	Export Diversification by Market – India vis-a-vis China and the US
IV.11	Expected Market Size of Frontier Technologies
IV.12	Import Content of Exports (ICE) Matters for Export Intensity and GVC Participation
IV.13	India at the Bottom as Capital Goods Importer Among Major Economies
IV.14	Tariff Profile of India’s Imports
IV.15	Utilisation of Net Capital Inflows
IV.16	Regulatory Easing of FDI in India since 1990s
IV.17	Export Sectors with High Capital Requirement
V.1	Impact of COVID-19 on Financial Intermediation
V.2	Stress in Large Borrowal Accounts
V.3	Stock Indices - Movements
V.4	Resource Mobilisation through Public and Rights Issues of Equities
V.5	Corporate Bond Market
V.6	Flow of Resources-to-GDP Gap
V.7	Trends in Savings and Deposits
V.8	Corporate Leverage in India
V.9	Credit Growth and Banking Sector Stress
V.10	SCBs’ Investment and Credit
V.11	Sectoral Credit and Retail NPAs
V.12	NPA Recovery Channels
V.13	Capital Infusion by the Government in PSBs
V.14	Moving Towards Digital India
V.15	Google Searches on Green Finance
VI.1	Medium-term Growth Scenarios